Astoria, OR – According to the 2024 findings, the number of high school graduates in the United States will peak at nearly 4 million in 2025, the highest number on record. However, following this peak, the report predicts a 13% decline in high school graduates by 2041, with the number falling to approximately 3.4 million.
This projection has sparked concern among educators, policymakers, and industry leaders, who fear the impact of fewer graduates entering colleges and the workforce. “The news for colleges and the workforce is a cause for concern,” said Demarée Michelau, WICHE’s president. She pointed to the decline in birth rates, stagnant high school graduation rates, and a drop in elementary school enrollments as key contributors to this projected decline, with many of these trends exacerbated by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report highlights significant regional disparities in the decline of high school graduates. States such as Hawaii, Illinois, and California are expected to experience the largest declines, with decreases of 33%, 32%, and 29%, respectively. Meanwhile, Washington D.C., Tennessee, and South Carolina are projected to see increases in the number of high school graduates—31%, 15%, and 14%, respectively.
The Knocking at the College Door findings underscore a particularly stark decline in the Western U.S., which is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in high school graduates compared to other regions. For Oregon, this means a projected decline of 19% by 2041, equating to a loss of around 8,000 students. Ben Cannon, executive director of Oregon’s Higher Education Coordinating Commission (HECC), emphasized the implications of this trend for the state’s workforce. “We know that we’re already not producing enough well-trained workers for a number of critical industries, and declining high school and college completion numbers will stretch an already-tight labor force even further,” Cannon said.
While both Oregon and Washington are expected to see declines in high school graduates, the rates vary. Washington, with a much larger student population than Oregon, is projected to experience only an 8% decline, or about 6,500 fewer graduates over the next 18 years. The state, however, is also seeing demographic shifts, with increases in the number of Hispanic, Black, and Asian graduates, trends that are expected to continue.
In Oregon, the only group seeing growth is Hispanic students, a trend that mirrors national patterns. The state’s education officials recognize the importance of supporting these historically underserved students. Oregon’s graduation rate for the Class of 2023 was 81%, below the national rate of 87%, and state officials are looking to improve these numbers to mitigate the effects of the projected decline in high school graduates.
Similarly, in Washington, the Class of 2023 had a graduation rate of 84%. The state is focused on increasing support for minority groups to ensure that graduation rates remain strong, especially as fewer students graduate overall.
The projected declines in high school graduates also pose a challenge for higher education. Colleges, especially small private institutions, have already faced financial struggles, and fewer students entering postsecondary education will only add pressure. WICHE officials, including Patrick Lane, vice president for policy analysis and research, noted that the sharp decline in high school graduates starting in 2025 will lead to “downward pressure” on postsecondary enrollments, which could have far-reaching effects on both educational institutions and the broader economy.
In light of these challenges, experts agree that one way to mitigate the decline in graduates is by improving high school graduation rates. To match the projected 2025 number of graduates by 2041, the nation would need to achieve a graduation rate of more than 95%, a steep increase from the current national rate of 87%. Oregon’s most recent graduation rate of 81% and Washington’s rate of 84% suggest significant work is needed to meet this ambitious goal.
To help address the challenges, both WICHE researchers and Oregon’s HECC officials point to opportunities in higher education. They emphasize the importance of re-engaging adults in higher education, increasing access to postsecondary credentials, and making higher education more affordable to young people. As the nation faces a decline in the number of high school graduates, efforts to improve graduation rates and expand access to higher education will be crucial in shaping the future of the workforce and the economy.
In sum, while the 2024 Knocking at the College Door report offers a glimpse into the potential challenges ahead, it also highlights opportunities for adaptation and growth in the face of demographic shifts and evolving societal needs. For educators and policymakers, the time to act is now.
