BOZEMAN, Mont. – The recent downturn in novel coronavirus cases in Gallatin County is encouraging, the county health officer said, but not necessarily indicative of the successful containment of the disease.
Gallatin City-County Health Officer Matt Kelley said during a press conference Friday that the Thanksgiving holiday affected the number of tests done in the last week. The seven-day rolling average for new cases reported for Thursday was 75.4 cases per 100,000, a 22% decrease from the week before. But Kelley cautioned that with almost no tests being done on Thanksgiving and the next day, the number may be deceptively low.
“It’s good to see it not climbing anymore, but we really need to think about the holiday and be careful about not making too big a leap of assumption,” Kelley said.
The percentage of positive cases in the last seven days also fell to 13.7% on Dec. 1 from 16.4% the week before, according to a weekly report, but Kelley said people seeking tests because they were traveling for Thanksgiving — and not because they had symptoms or a known exposure — could have artificially depressed the positivity rate.
Cases related to Montana State University decreased, but so did tests there as students wrapped up the semester before the holiday. Though the number of hospitalizations has been decreasing and test turnaround times improved in the last week, Kelley said the overall picture of how the county is doing in controlling the spread of COVID-19 is hazy. Kelley said testing of Bozeman’s wastewater for the disease saw a slight uptick, complicating other data showing a decrease in cases.
Any cases related to Thanksgiving gatherings will likely show up in the data next week and the week after, Kelley said. It may not be until the week before Christmas that the numbers are clear enough to show whether the virus is under better control in Gallatin County, Kelley said, though he is hopeful that the case counts are beginning to stabilize.
With cases rising rapidly in November, and more deaths being reported in recent weeks, Kelley said people may be beginning to be take the disease more seriously.
“In the last several weeks we’ve started to see deaths with more regularity, our hospitalization numbers ticked up, and what our experience has been is when that happens it tends to get people’s attention,” Kelley said.
Kelley and Darcel Vaughn, administrator of the Gallatin Rest Home, urged people to continue following health guidelines during the holiday season.
“I would urge everyone to find imaginative ways to celebrate the holidays and keep people safe and in small groups,” Kelley said.
Kelley said the health department is working to implement new quarantine guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said this week that those who have been exposed to the virus only need to quarantine for 10 days with no symptoms, shorter than the previously prescribed 14 days. The new CDC guidelines also state people can end their quarantine after seven days if they have no symptoms and test negative within the previous 48 hours.
Kelley said he is concerned the new guidelines could impact the county’s testing capacity because people seeking to get out of their quarantine sooner may seek tests in greater numbers.
“It’s going to be a challenge for the general public because those testing resources that we have are finite,” Kelley said. “We’re going to have to be really careful that we don’t overwhelm those because we need them for people who are symptomatic.”
The department is also preparing to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine. Several companies have reported their vaccines to be effective, and Gov. Steve Bullock said this week the state expects to receive thousands of Pfizer vaccine doses by mid-December.
Kelley said he is unsure how many of those may be coming to Gallatin County. The health department hasn’t been told it will receive any doses directly, Kelley said, as he expects the first round of doses will likely target front-line health care workers.
The department is working with Bozeman Health, Gallatin County Emergency Management and local first responder agencies on a distribution plan, Kelley said, though he asked for patience, noting the same people responsible for controlling the virus’ spread right now will also coordinate vaccinations.
Kelley estimated vaccinations will be widely available for the general public by the spring or early summer, though he noted that he doesn’t have much solid information on a timeline.
The process is complicated by the fact that there is more than one vaccine out there, that extremely cold storage is needed for one type of vaccine and that two doses are needed for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to work, Kelley said.
“This is all happening so quickly that we don’t have a lot of information. What I can tell you is we’re getting ready,” Kelley said. “What I would stress to everybody (is) it’s going to be a long process, and it’s going to require some patience and some grace.”
